Recession Risks, Chinese Tourism, Green Travel: Ask Skift's Most Popular Questions

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By Rashaad Jorden

Published April 25, 2025

How Would a Recession Impact Global Tourism?

A recession would slow global tourism growth. Skift Research recently lowered its 2025 global travel growth forecast from 6% to 9% down to 2% to 5% due to U.S. recession and global slowdown risks being higher than at the start of the year.

During a recession, consumers tend to cut back on discretionary spending, which includes travel, to prioritize essential expenses such as food and housing. Reduced travel demand can lead to a decrease in hotel bookings, airline ticket sales, and overall tourist activity.

But as travel has become more integral to consumers' sense of well-being and identity, it appears to be more recession-resistant than before. During periods of economic uncertainty, travelers tend to choose domestic trips, road travel, and budget accommodations over expensive international vacations or luxury stays.

What Is the Outlook for Chinese and APAC Outbound Tourism in 2024–2025?

China's outbound tourism is expected to surpass pre-Covid levels for the first time in 2025, with Chinese travelers projected to make 115 million international trips, according to projections from China Trading Desk.

The group also found that nearly 38% of those travelers will be venturing overseas for the first time in 2025. In addition, 64% of China's 2025 outbound travelers are below 30 years of age. Singapore, Japan, and South Korea are the top three destinations that Chinese travelers prefer.

As for the wider Asia-Pacific region, the Skift Travel Health Index revealed in January it was the strongest-performing region, with a 6% year-over-year jump in travel performance. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to be responsible for 50% of global air passenger growth over the next 15 years.

The region's share of global leisure spending is also expected to jump from 29% in 2023 to 35% in 2025.

Are Travelers Really Prioritizing Sustainability in 2025?

Although there is widespread awareness among travelers about the importance of sustainability, actual behavior doesn't match their concerns. While 92% of respondents in a survey published in Trip.com's 2024 Sustainable Travel Consumer Report acknowledged the importance of sustainable travel, a little less than 57% said they practiced it.

Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel said travelers prioritize price over sustainability when it comes time to book despite the large-scale desire for greener trips.

“Even if the cheaper [price] is less sustainable, many people still choose that. Everybody wants to be sustainable but they want somebody else to be sustainable,” Fogel said at a Destination Europe event in Februrary.