Overview of 2024 Outbound Tourism Recovery
In 2024, China’s outbound tourism demonstrated significant recovery, nearing pre-pandemic levels. By the third quarter, outbound travel reached 82% of 2019 figures, with substantial growth concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. The National Immigration Administration reported approximately 160 million cross-border movements in Q3, with mainland residents accounting for 78.545 million, marking a 27.3% year-over-year increase. For the first nine months, total entries and exits amounted to 447 million, with mainland residents making up 216 million.
Data from major tourist destinations reinforced this trend. Macau reported 25.92 million inbound tourists from January to September, including 18.22 million from mainland China—a 36.3% increase from 2023. Similarly, Hong Kong received approximately 29.5 million visitors between January and August, 23 million of whom were from the mainland, showing a 38.9% rise.
Key markets experienced remarkable growth:
Japan: Welcomed 3.85 million Chinese tourists from January to September, up 18.3% from 2023, contributing to a total of 26.88 million foreign visitors.
South Korea: Hosted 10.67 million foreign visitors in the first eight months, with 3.02 million from mainland China, reaching 93% of 2019 levels.
Thailand: Recorded 5.3 million Chinese arrivals in the first nine months, a 112% increase from 2023.
Malaysia: Saw over 2.28 million Chinese tourists from January to August, exceeding 2019 levels by 160%.
Singapore: Hosted 12.59 million visitors, with 2.48 million from China, marking a 146.3% year-over-year rise.
Vietnam: Received 12.7 million international visitors, 2.7 million of whom were Chinese—a 141% increase.
Cambodia: Attracted 538,000 Chinese tourists between January and August, up 48% year-over-year.
Dubai: Welcomed 547,000 overnight Chinese visitors, marking a 39% increase compared to 2023.
Egypt: Registered 265,000 Chinese tourists, a 65% surge, with expectations to surpass 300,000 for the year.
The European market also showed a gradual recovery. During the National Day holiday, outbound travel to Europe spiked, with emerging destinations like Turkey, Serbia, and Croatia witnessing notable growth. Despite tightened Schengen visa policies curtailing potential group tours, business travel between China and Europe grew significantly.
Analysis of International Market Recovery Impact on Domestic Airlines
International air travel in 2024 experienced robust recovery, influencing both international and domestic markets. By August, international and regional flight operations reached 89.8% of 2019 levels, with passenger volume at 74.1% and an average load factor of 82.6%. Cumulatively from January to August, international flights and passenger volumes recovered to 82.3% and 67.7%, respectively, showing significant improvements over 2023.
Conversely, domestic flights surpassed 2019 metrics, with a flight operation recovery rate of 117.1% and passenger throughput of 122.1%. This growth contrasted with declining yields, as average domestic ticket prices fell by 65 yuan, and revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) dropped by 0.001 yuan. The summer travel season intensified this trend, with prices dipping by 95 yuan year-over-year.
Factors Behind the Decline in Domestic Airline Yields
The decline in domestic flight revenue despite increased volumes can be attributed to the aggressive growth of international capacity. Between January and August 2024, international capacity surged by 84.2%, outpacing domestic growth and impacting ticket pricing. Lower international fares lured price-sensitive travellers who might otherwise opt for domestic routes. Consequently, domestic airlines had to adopt a “volume over price” strategy to maintain competitiveness.
This dynamic affected traveller segmentation as well. Business travellers—typically a high-yield group—accounted for 3.0% fewer passengers, while leisure travellers, more sensitive to pricing, increased by 2.7%. Notably, the proportion of highly sensitive passengers increased by 7.0%, further driving down ticket prices.
Positive and Negative Impacts on the Domestic Market
While the resurgence of international travel diverted some demand from domestic routes, it also had a constructive side. Increased international connectivity facilitated transit and partially absorbed excess domestic capacity. However, the data highlights that competition from international markets strained domestic yields, leading to strategic price adjustments.
Despite these challenges, the civil aviation industry’s strategy of price reductions succeeded in driving record-high passenger volumes. The aviation sector’s resilience, demonstrated by the recovery trends, underscores its capacity to adapt amid a complex and competitive landscape.
Conclusion
The year 2024 marked a pivotal phase for both domestic and international aviation markets. China’s outbound tourism experienced a notable revival, bolstered by eased travel restrictions and increased regional connectivity. This recovery reverberated across global tourism, propelling Asian, European, and Middle East markets to significant growth.
Domestically, the surge in international capacity impacted yields, but strategic price cuts and high traveller throughput illustrated the market’s adaptability. Moving forward, balancing international and domestic strategies will be crucial for sustaining profitability and meeting evolving traveller demands.
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